Instead, Jon draws a straight line from the heights of American grand strategy to the trenches of agency decisionmaking. To start with, he avoids two of the biggest and most common pitfalls: offering hazy strategic ideas without explaining how to implement them, or cataloging a laundry list of policies without any discernible strategy. There is no shortage of analysis today on U.S.-China tech policy, but Jon’s report stands out for its ambition, clarity, and rigor. It’s a major achievement, and I strongly hope that policymakers pay attention to it. His report builds on recommendations outlined by the NSCAI and the China Strategy Group. That’s why I was so pleased to read Jon Bateman’s major new report, “U.S.-China Technological ‘Decoupling’: A Strategy and Policy Framework.” Jon is a brilliant thinker who has written an exceptional guidebook and blueprint for U.S. One of our key findings was that such profound national dilemmas call for deeper analysis by a broader range of independent voices. The China Strategy Group, a bipartisan group of thinkers and doers I convened with Jared Cohen in 2020, sought to develop those kinds of frameworks. leaders are still searching for a mental framework-a set of analytical tools to help them answer the most fundamental questions of strategy and policy. Given the high stakes and dizzying complexity of the challenges, many U.S. Still, there is so much more work to do to secure America’s technological future in the context of a rising China. That is why I continue to advocate for major legislation (such as the United States Innovation and Competition Act and the America COMPETES Act), to develop the next phase of implementable policy options (through the recently launched Special Competitive Studies Project), to support bold and ambitious research on the hardest AI problems (via my new AI2050 initiative), and to elevate public discussion (in my latest book, The Age of AI, with Henry Kissinger and Daniel Huttenlocher). We were successful, but this effort did not go far enough. In 2019, I was appointed to be the chair of the NSCAI, a congressionally mandated bipartisan commission that was charged with “consider the methods and means necessary to advance the development of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and associated technologies to comprehensively address the national security and defense needs of the United States.” 1 I worked with leaders in industry, academia, and government to formulate recommendations that would be adopted by Congress, the administration, and departments and agencies. Meanwhile, policymakers-who usually aren’t technologists-have scrambled to educate themselves about the intricate global supply chains that still link the United States, China, and many other countries. Now, the prediction has already come halfway true. Back then, this idea was still novel enough that the comment made headlines around the world. In 2018, for example, I remarked that the global internet would probably bifurcate into a Chinese-led internet and a U.S.-led internet. “Decoupling” entered the Washington lexicon just a few years ago, and it represents a dramatic break from earlier assumptions. How partial should this partial separation be-would 15 percent of U.S.-China technological ties be severed, or 85 percent? Which technologies would fall on either side of the cut line? And what, really, is the strategy for America’s long-term technology relationship with China? The further I probe, the less clarity and consensus I find. That’s exactly right, of course, but it’s also pretty vague. They say that some degree of technological separation from China is necessary, but we shouldn’t go so far as to harm U.S. What should we do about this? In Washington, many people I talk to give a similar answer. But that same Chinese tech sector also powers Beijing’s military build-up, unfair trade practices, and repressive social control. China’s tech sector continues to benefit American businesses, universities, and citizens in myriad ways-providing critical skilled labor and revenue to sustain U.S. America built those technology ties over many years and for lots of good reasons. Washington has awakened to find the United States deeply technologically enmeshed with its chief long-term rival. It happened with such astonishing speed that we’re all still straining to understand the implications. A second technological superpower, China, has emerged. The fact is that America has been technologically dominant for so long that some U.S. Congress and to the administration: America is not prepared to defend or compete in the AI era. As the chair of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI), I led the effort that ultimately delivered a harsh message to the U.S. Technology is the engine that powers superpowers.
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